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Expert: Brendan Moynihan
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One of the most important factors affecting the market’s supply-and-demand equation (i.e., selling and buying transactions in the market) is the expectations of the participants — expectations about where prices are headed, fundamental reports and the market’s response to news releases.
The Federal Reserve Board recently adopted an expectations model of the markets for economic forecasting, and now you can apply the same approach to your trading. In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in 1997, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan described the expectations model this way: “Participants in the financial markets are susceptible to waves of optimism. Excessive optimism sows the seed of its own reversal. When unwarranted expectations are ultimately not realized, the unwinding of these excesses can act to amplify a downturn, much the way they can amplify the upswing.” This session teaches you how to identify and take advantage of these waves (trends) of optimism and pessimism and their reversals. You will also learn how Brendan combines elements of the economic science used in the Chicago Board of Trade’s Market Profile and the Nobel Prize-winning theories of expectations (as expressed in sentiment surveys) to develop a method for analyzing and trading the futures markets. |
Expert: Nelson Freeburg
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Could you use a purely mechanical timing formula that has produced 10 percent gains a year since 1986 with strictly controlled risk? Nelson teaches you everything you need to trade the Pankin Sector Fund Strategy for exceptional profits and reduced risk. The Pankin Strategy trades Fidelity Select sector funds. Sector funds tend to trend more consistently than individual stocks or commodities and produce unusually reliable trading patterns. If you had traded this simple yet powerful system over the past twelve years, you would have outperformed 99 percent of all CTAs. The Pankin Strategy takes just a few minutes each week to update, uses straightforward logic and works for virtually any size account.
The Pankin Strategy has a superb hypothetical track record — 35 percent annual gains since 1986 (real-time performance has been just as strong). However, the original strategy requires withstanding drawdowns most individual traders find unacceptable. Money manager Mark Pankin, developer of the system, posted returns of 57 percent in 1995 and 45 percent in 1996 but the drawdowns sometimes represented as much as 25 percent of total equity.
To better gauge the risk, Nelson tests the Pankin Strategy over a wider range of market conditions. In this workshop, he simulates Pankin trading back to 1970 (considerably longer than the Fidelity Select sector funds have actually been traded). You will see that the original strategy would have generated reassuringly strong profits throughout the past twenty-eight years but with frequent and often punishing equity drawdowns (the maximum equity dip would have been an unacceptable 45 percent).
To help curb the risk, Nelson introduces you to a variety of defensive tactics he uses along with the original Pankin Strategy. As he adds risk-control measures, you will observe a powerful trading system unfold. To insure that the evolving system is theoretically sound, he tests the findings across multiple portfolios, time frames and signals. The resulting variant of the Pankin Strategy has gained 30 percent a year since 1986 with just 12 percent drawdown!
Central to this final comprehensive trading system is a filter Nelson uses to confirm Pankin signals. He demonstrates how this indicator is almost certain to capture every major stock market trend. With this and other defensive measures, you will trade the Pankin Strategy more confidently to achieve aggressive profits with limited risk.
Building a Mechanical Trading System from the Ground Up (1996).
Testing is a critical area often neglected by technicians and traders. Nelson clearly demonstrates the ease with which testing can be performed given today’s sophisticated workstations and high-performance computers. The testing power that these tools provide is now readily accessible to all traders and managers.
Nelson describes the process of building a mechanical trading system, providing concrete examples of high-return/low-risk strategies for a range of markets. Nelson also shares his favorite high-performance trading systems tested on TradeStationTM. The code (which is given to you) and methods Nelson uses are clearly stated and can be translated for use with many other popular software systems. |
Expert: Richard Lees
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Born of a marriage between technical analysis, physics and pattern recognition, the pH-Indicators are elastic and focused on the future, like today’s broadband electronic markets. Static terms such as ‘overbought’ or ‘oversold’ force traders to make decisions with two-dimensional road maps in three-dimensional real time. These new indicators provide equity and forward market traders with tools that accurately reflect the market environment. The indicators help traders construct the appropriate three-dimensional map, showing first where the market itself wants to go and second, how to build a position ahead of and within the trend of those markets. As CAT-SCANs are to X-rays, these indicators offer a brand-new view of market internals. Boundaries imposed upon traditional concepts of momentum are no longer applicable.
In this session, Richard explains his unique outlook on pH-Indicators and how he uses them to achieve financial success. Richard uses these indicators to successfully manage money and he carefully considered the time and place to present them to the public. He chose TAG 20 as the appropriate forum because he felt it is where real traders come together in search of new methods to make real money. Workshop attendees were the very first traders ever to have access to Richard’s unique work; now you can share his insights, as well. |
Expert: Michael Mazur
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Mechanical systems do have merit, but after ten years of trading in the cash and energy markets Michael became convinced that a discretionary approach was more suited to his personality and gave him more consistent profits. In this seminar, Michael describes every aspect of the discretionary methodology he developed for profiting from a short-term volatility breakout in futures and equities markets.
Michael’s strategy employs numerous studies, but it assembles them in a logical and efficient manner that is easily grasped. Using his techniques, Michael analyzes twelve futures markets and ten equities in the two hours of this session. His methodology employs classic pattern recognition, average true range, swing, Fibonacci support and resistance, MACD, ADX/DMI, price/volume/open interest relationships, momentum, historic volatility, and the Commitment of Traders report.
Michael also discusses the full anatomy of a trade including entries, exits, setting stops, account leverage, and money management. He presents actual trades in detail so that you gain a complete understanding of his pragmatic, winning methodology. This session provides you with an enhanced understanding of the markets, thereby improving profitability regardless of experience level or trading style. |
Expert: Perry Kaufman
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The conflict between trending and non-trending markets poses one of the greatest dilemmas for the systems trader. To trade effectively you must decide whether to trade with a trend or against it, or to wait for a better entry position altogether.
In his workshop, Perry presents what he considers the best technique for making these decisions. He combines this trending technique with a System Selection Index to determine which markets exhibit signs of a reversal and which indicate a continuing trend. Based on these concepts, Perry shows you how to improve your entry timing. He explains why profit taking improves results while stop-losses make them worse. Perry also describes some useful programs written for his own use and provides you with TradeStationTM code, easily adaptable for use with other software packages, to illustrate his concepts. |
Expert: Bill Williams
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Bill is revolutionizing the world of technical analysis by challenging its chief underlying premise — that the past can be used to predict the future. Instead, Bill describes the markets as a “natural phenomenon,” which the traditional classical sciences cannot model or explain. “Classical science can model the trajectory of a rocket but cannot model the shape of a cloud, the structure of a plant, the flow of a river or the machinations of the market.”
In this workshop, Bill explains and illustrates how Chaos Theory and Fractal Geometry, long used in the physical sciences, provide a more perfect model for understanding and identifying opportunity in the commodity and stock markets.
Nature and the human brain are chaotic. The markets, as a part of nature and a reflection of the human brain, are chaotic as well. “Chaos” (often misinterpreted to mean “randomness”) actually signifies a collection of new information. Where traditional wisdom uses cause and effect to describe and predict the actions of the markets, Chaos Theory focuses on this new information as the organizing principle for market movement. Fractal Geometry is simply the tool used to analyze such non-linear phenomena.
In this session, you will learn how the sciences of Chaos Theory and Fractal Geometry provide a superior model for investing in the commodity and stock markets. You will learn how the Market Facilitation Index (MFI) adds a totally new, non-linear and behavioral dimension to trading that is beyond the normal technical approach. You will see for the first time Bill’s new Chaos software, Investor’s DreamTM, and learn how it can be used in trading with TradeStationTM and other technical analysis software packages. |
Expert: Barbara Rockefeller
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The FX market is riddled with technical analysts, and every type of analysis is actively used all the time. Elliott Wave and Gann are particularly popular, but standard statistical techniques, patterns and candlesticks are also used. The FX market is the largest (volume) and most liquid market. It is a 24-hour market, thus a model of how equity trading will look in a short time. This market is relatively unique in having government intervention and is sometimes correlated with other markets such as equities and gold. Barbara, as an indicator junkie, will show you what methods she uses and why the Average True Range Channels help her stay out of trouble. She will also discuss the dilemma of trading multiple time frames and why there is often more profit in trading the correction than the trend. |
Expert: Reinhart Jaenisch
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Using the Techniques of Andrews and Babson to "Recognize the Terrain and Apply the Right Tools".
This workshop focuses upon the techniques of two markets greats, Dr. Alan Andrews and Roger Babson. Little known and even less understood today, these techniques remain powerful tools for analyzing today’s markets. Today, most technical analysis computer programs contain an indicator called the Andrews Pitchfork, but hardly anyone knows how to use it or what it does. Originally taught by Dr. Alan Hall Andrews of the Foundation for Economic Stabilization (who made his first million dollars in a few years trading the markets prior to the 1930s), the Andrews Pitchfork, when properly understood and applied, can serve as a powerful tool to pinpoint relative overbought and oversold conditions within channels, thereby helping to determine changes in trend. This seminar covers many of the original rules and shows you easy-to-use methods for applying them. You will be taught to use the Pitchfork lines for short- as well as long-term trading. Ron also expands the use of the Pitchfork, demonstrating how it can serve as a stand-alone mechanical trading system. This workshop is hands-on. Dr. Andrews did not rely upon computers. You will learn to use his techniques the same way that the original foundation students learned, using a pencil and ruler as you are guided through the procedures. Roger Babson, best known as the founder of Security Research Charts and Babson Business College, was ostracized by the investment community in 1929 when he predicted the coming crash. Babson’s techniques were developed from the principles of Sir Isaac Newton. At the time, the investment community also had difficulty believing that the laws of physics and finance could be related. Ron’s workshop demonstrates how to use these principles in stocks and futures markets. |
Expert: Hank Pruden
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In this session, Hank introduces his Action-Sequence method of learning, a uniquely effective technique for enhancing teaching and learning skills that calls upon participants to interact in a way that goes well beyond a basic workshop. You will be part of an action-feedback-replay exercise in which you will conduct an ongoing technical analysis exercise, monitoring the daily vertical line chart of a market index. Hank provides you with all of the appropriate Wyckoff principles and techniques, and then conducts his session as an “open book” exercise.
First, you examine an ACTION form. You will be asked to reconstruct the chart price and volume, and interpret the present position and probable future trend of the market. You will also be requested to judge the underlying motive of the “Composite Operator” and take definite action: buying, selling, or remaining neutral.
You will then exchange your ACTION sheet for a FEEDBACK sheet which will retell what actually took place (interpreted using the Wyckoff Method). You will then compare your expectations, based upon your ACTION form, to the actual results.
Finally, you will proceed to a REPLAY sheet (another version of the ACTION sheet), which gives you the opportunity to rectify past mistakes or reinforce past successes. Upon completion of the REPLAY sheet you will receive the next ACTION sheet in the sequence. You will continue through the action-feedback-replay cycle until the end of the chart data. This workshop provides you with an opportunity to learn from your own mistakes under the guidance of an expert. At the conclusion of this exercise, you will have learned the principles of the Wyckoff Method of technical analysis and trading. Through repeated applications in a simulation, this interactive session will enhance both your trading skills and your ability to judge critical trading situations. |
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